Asia-Pacific, Power & Security Business as Usual Before the Next US Administration: Taiwan’s Japan Policy Under President Lai

For the Lai Ching-te administration, continuity is anticipated in Taiwan’s approach to Japan, mirroring the trajectory set by the previous Tsai administration. High-level diplomatic and military strategies remain aligned with the Asia policy of the United States. At the same time, the intensification of lower-level engagements corresponds with the challenges posed by China’s gloomy economic horizon. However, the upcoming US presidential election looms large as a potential disruptor. Any alterations to US security commitment to Taiwan or Japan could exert significant pressure on both governments to reassess their respective foreign policies towards each other. 

Domestic Constraints for Aggressive Foreign Policymaking 

Domestic politics are pivotal in shaping Taiwan’s foreign policy decisions, including Taiwan’s Japan policy. In this regard, President-elect Lai’s administration faces significant domestic constraints likely to deter aggressive foreign policymaking. Primarily, the ruling party’s loss of the majority in the Legislative Yuan has curtailed its capacity to pursue assertive initiatives in foreign policy. 

Furthermore, the 2026 county elections constrain Lai’s administration, influencing its approach to Japan. Any inclination towards aggressive foreign policies in high politics may lead to another substantial setback in the county election. Consecutive losses in legislative and county elections would severely diminish the power base of Lai’s administration. Moreover, such setbacks could substantially undermine Lai’s prospects for reelection in 2028. These dual constraints deter Lai’s administration from significantly advancing Taiwan’s foreign policies toward Japan. Note that vibrant and booming exchanges in low politics with Japan have always been hugely popular because an overwhelming percentage of people in Taiwan hold a favorable view of Japan.  

High Politics in the Orbit of the US Asia Policy  

Under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s foreign policy framework is anchored in its strategic alignment with the United States, a cornerstone for maintaining stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region. The Tsai administration has displayed a strong commitment to bolstering cooperation with Japan within the context of this strategic alignment. This commitment is evidenced across multiple facets, including intelligence sharing, defense collaborations, diplomatic dialogues, and high-level political exchanges. These endeavors are all geared towards reinforcing the regional security architecture and deterring potential threats from China. 

Upon President-elect Lai’s inauguration in May, he is anticipated to continue President Tsai's subtle yet resolute efforts to deepen cooperation with Japan. In the event of continued aggressive military buildup by the Chinese government, there is a likelihood of heightened calls for joint military exercises and the formulation of detailed action plans. Such actions would be positioned at the forefront of high-level political discourse and actions aimed at enhancing self-defense capabilities and preemptive deterrence, aligning with broader US interests in the region. 

Low Politics in the Face of China’s Hard-Landing Economy 

In the realm of low politics, Taiwan’s engagement with Japan has experienced a notable acceleration in both breadth and depth since the beginning of Tsai’s presidency. This heightened engagement is evident across various spheres, including academic exchanges, policy formulation, and social networks, aimed at addressing shared challenges such as natural disasters, social crises, and economic development. For instance, Taiwan has actively pursued initiatives to strengthen collaboration with Japan in preparation and response for natural disasters, tackling issues ranging from earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons and addressing social concerns such as aging populations, low fertility rates, and public health management. Furthermore, Taiwan has forged partnerships with Japan in key economic sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing, green energy development, tourism, and biotechnology. 

In addition to the existing engagement policies under the Tsai administration, the incoming Lai administration is poised to advance these efforts further. Lai’s government is expected to undertake initiatives to secure Japan’s support for Taiwan’s accession to international agreements, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Japan. Furthermore, efforts to establish TSMC’s third advanced semiconductor plant in Japan underscore Taiwan’s commitment to deepening economic ties and technological cooperation with its Japanese counterparts. These endeavors reflect a concerted effort to upgrade bilateral relations and capitalize on mutual opportunities for socio-economic advancement. 

Upcoming US Presidential Election as Unpredictable Shocks 

The outcome of the US election will significantly influence the trajectory of Taiwan-Japan relations in the foreseeable future. The ongoing campaign for the US presidential election appears to intensify the discourse surrounding China policy for Democratic and Republican candidates. In the upcoming rematch between Biden and Trump, the direction of Taiwan-Japan relations hinges upon the victor. 

Should President Biden secure victory and US-China relations deteriorate, Taiwan’s strategic alignment with the United States would likely prompt Taiwan to deepen its cooperation with Japan, spanning high-level strategic collaborations and lower-level engagements to reinforce regional order and stability. 

Conversely, a victory for Trump would introduce significant uncertainty in Asia. Trump's past discourses, such as encouraging Russian aggression against NATO allies and marginalizing Taiwan's significance to the tip of a pen, may compel Japan to reconsider its relationship with Taiwan and China. Taiwan, facing abandonment akin to NATO allies, may find its ability to cultivate relations with Japan substantially limited. Moreover, Trump's pledge to escalate tariffs on China will drive US-China relations south. Although Taiwan may seek to strengthen its bond with Japan to mitigate the repercussions of volatile US-China relations, it must necessitate a nuanced and adaptable diplomatic approach to Japan across diverse domains. 

Conclusion 

The analysis underscores the prospect of Taiwan’s approach to Japan in high and low politics under the Lai administration. While continuity with past policies is expected, the impending US presidential election emerges as a pivotal factor with the potential to reshape the regional landscape. Domestic constraints, particularly electoral considerations, limit aggressive foreign policymaking, fostering a cautious approach. At the same time, the enduring commitment to strategic alignment with the United States and deepening ties with Japan underscores Taiwan's strategic imperatives amidst regional challenges. However, the outcome of the US election remains uncertain, carrying significant implications for the future trajectory of Taiwan-Japan relations. In navigating these complexities, Taiwan's diplomatic strategy must remain agile, responsive, and practical to evolving geopolitical dynamics, ensuring stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.